The beloved crazy birdman is looking awesome, IMO. Now he does have some changes, but I feel they are for the better as it makes him a lot more interesting in the end. So first I'll list the changes that we know of, and then I'll go into things, doing an early analysis of stuff we can see so far.
For a quick disclaimer for folks who don't follow my blog: I'm an intermediate type who has a lot of work to get to where I actually want to be, so I don't know the game and every character inside and out like some of the pros out there. I main Raven, sub Sol, and dabble around with Chipp and a couple of others, though I'm not particularly amazing with them. I plan on subbing Answer when Rev2 drops because he's awesome and one of the coolest desigs in ages.
So if I miss something, by all means leave a comment since I'd be grateful and I'd correct it. So yeah, just so you know, this info isn't coming from like a pro analyst or anything. Also as the title says, this is early analysis. Which of course people do anyway, I'm just joining the crowd here.
So for the basic change list that we know:
6P can't be jump cancelled anymore.
Ball hits change on excitement(Lv. 1=2 hits, Lv. 2=3 hits, Lv. 3=4 hits.)
Kokosare/Give it to me HERE/Stance gives excitement very quickly now(raises faster in neutral stance as well.) 2-3 ticks per hit at a glance. I can't see how much faster it goes up in neutral stance now, the initial tick takes about a second on the clock but I haven't been able to actively time it. It seems to be a bit faster. On the one downside, you can no longer stance unblockable moves. (side note: this was probably needed to help balance it.)
Scratch startup changes on excitement. Unknown actual frames yet, but it gets faster at level 2 and faster yet at 3(at level 2 you are able to to 3x scratch loops, as reported by a tweet, on everyone except for heavies like Pot/Kum/Bedman.) This also enables new combo routes.
His long glide may have a bit of a shorter reach but this is hard to tell without actually playing the game. We'll probably have more info on this soon.
Scratch, Command Grab and Dash Super all give excitement now(1, 3, and 5 ticks respectively.)
Stab super drains excitement(It starts to tick down after the kick hits.)
Excitement starts to drain on its own after 10 seconds of not gaining a tick(any single tick will be fine to reset it.) After this time the bar starts to drain fairly quickly(it takes about 5-6 seconds, by stopwatch, for a full bar to drain.) Even a tick in neutral stance will reset it.
Excitement affects things otherwise as it did before(increasing attack level of the ball, increasing hits of the dash super, and increasing the combo capability of the command grab in addition to the bonus damage.
I'll update with official patch notes when they decide to release them.
Initial Short Thoughts:
Raven is overall stronger with work; however, as said, he needs to work harder for said strength. He's buffed at his high end, but you need to put more time in to see these buffs, and poor/lazy Ravens are not going to be as prevalent since at base level excitement he is mildly nerfed. Now, this is a given with any character in any game. More work=better results. But I'll get into why in this it'll feel even better to put the work in and how scary he can potentially get. His ability looks something like(keeping in mind there is no jc on 6P in general, that's the one 'flat nerf' he got):
0-2 ticks: 2 hit ball, normal scratch. Possibly a bit of a damage increase(3-6% if he gets 1-2 ticks.) Mild nerf, though by no means unbearable. Likely so mild he would not even change spot in the tier list(maybe he'd change one head-order ON his tier, at worst, IMO.)
3-5 ticks: 3 hit ball, 1f faster scratch(opens up new combo routes), 9-15% damage increase. Probably even-ish to now, once you take the 6P and the faster scratch in mind probably cancelling each other out(IMO the fast scratch is great due to the routes it opens, like 2D-Scratch on middle AND lightweights.) However given the damage boost, I think he's slightly better than he is now once you add all of his abilities up and take away the 6P jump cancel.
6+ ticks: 4 hit ball, 2f faster scratch, 18-30% damage increase. Buffed compared to now, clearly, IMO.
Again, to get to his buffs, you need to work more, so you can think of this as a bit of a barrier. I like to say Raven is basically 'changed'. Harder work for more reward. It's up to you how you consider it(some people think harder work means a slight nerf regardless of more reward, others look at the reward. It's subjective I think.)
The Longer Breakdown:
6P:
I think 6P will still be a useful move for CH confirming into grab(it does still have it's upper body invuln), though it has lost a decent amount of it's AA utility without the jc.
Biggest issue with 6P is that on a non CH, as an AA, it can be teched. Now, that isn't so much of a problem because he can just jc it and that is a big help. With no ability to really gatling from anything as an AA(on the ground, you're fine, it gatlings with cl.S and f.S), you're really relying on getting that CH now with it. For button-happy people that won't be an issue, for good reads it won't, but it is more dangerous now(it's going to mainly be used for his cl.S->6P->cl.S-6P combo now I feel.)
So why did they do this? Well they nerfed four AA moves at least(Sin, Raven, Leo, and Sol, and I may actually be missing some), so it feels like they want less 'easy' AA. I think they went a bit far with Leo's in particular(it's barely an AA anymore), but I can see actually why they went this way with 6P, possibly. What I'm about to say is speculation on my end, but here goes:
With the addition of Excitement gain off of the S grab(which is actually very meaningful now, it's instant level 2, and he can RRC the grab for another grab, which will then grant level 3, which is very dangerous), I kinda think they figured 6P, as it was, would have been a catch-all AA. The move would have had, if they hadn't changed it:
-Great arc to catch a variety of moves
-ability to jc it to keep it safer on normal hit
-Ability to S grab on CH
-Upper body invulnerability
Basically with some small exceptions depending on angle(5K and 5HS would still be used, albeit I feel much more sparingly and only vs. specific attacks), 6P would have just been the go-to unga AA, even with it's big recovery, since Raven would have little to lose with all of that. Mess it up and you can adjust it, get a CH and you start the excitement train rolling. It sort of feels that with other good AA nerfs they maybe want people to AA smarter.
So Raven CAN still use 6P, but it carries more of a risk on normal hit, which means I feel they didn't want him just 6Ping people jumping at him for everything to fish for the free excitement grab(given how strong he is with it now), but use it more smartly(and yeah, I think it'll still have it's uses in his toolkit) Again, this is just all my speculation. They could have thrown darts at a board for all I know. :P
5K and 5HS will still be doing work as AA's though and be doing it more; these are fantastic AA's, they just cover different angles(5K that sort of 45 degree angle in front of him, 5HS a longer range, heavier hitting angle, both of which can be jc'd into combos. Neither prorate either, remember!)
Ball Changes(Oki Blenders)
Raven was known for(and whined about a lot, let's face it) his 'blender oki', where he would get a knockdown, throw his 3 hit ball, and then fly on in for a mixup. People whined about this as if they were asked to give up their morning coffee or something(traditionally, oki characters tend to garner salt from people.)
Now he still has his oki. In fact, at level 2 excitement(3-5 ticks), it's exactly how it is now. At level 3, it's actually better. (And you also have to remember gaining excitement gives him that 3% per tick damage buff, which he has now, but since people barely use excitement, you don't see it much.) 4 hit ball at level 3. 4 hits is big. Like, the 3 hit ball, at 10 ticks, does 26x3 damage(base, not account for defensive stuff, guts, etc.) Level 4 will be four full hits. As an opponent, do not get hit by this. (Not to mention it's attack level of 4 at max level. And the blockstun that thing is going to give.)
The change here is that either way the Raven player is going to have to work harder. At low levels of excitement(0-2 ticks), he'll have to be much more adept at mixing up and the like because the ball won't be able to just hold them off free since it can be reversed. On the other hand, if they want the stronger ball, Raven players will have to work at keeping excitement.
But given how strong excitement is in Rev2 now I think that'll be something to strive for. As said I think that 4 hit ball is going to be nasty(and I don't even want to think about potential command grab shenanigans. Well I do but yeah. XD)
You can see the 4 hit ball grinding up this poor Faust here(sort of, he sort of traps him):
Also there is likely, due to the hitstun of the 4 hit orb, going to be even more nasty shenanigans to pull off. Airdash oki command grab? Further use of command grab setups? Air throws? Scarier mixups with level 3 damage behind him? That level 4 orb on it's own is going to do around 26x4 damage(and judging by videos, bonus damage has not been lowered in doing some comparison labbing) if it doesn't get blocked.
That being said, the lower level balls are useful for things like space control. The ball is actually useful for that NOW, to be fair, but it feels too few Ravens actually use it for that. Some do, which is cool, but I notice in matches people are making heavier use of it now, because it can be used to drop a still-somewhat dangerous object in the middle of the screen to force them to grind to a halt. As seen here, the Raven uses this to hold off Johnny so he can reset his stacks:
I've also seen it used to halt people behind it and sneak a command grab in. Again, the ball was always useful for this but there were so many Ravens that never utilized it for more than oki; giving it variable levels seemed to open up people's imaginations somewhat with it, which is a good thing.
Excitement Changes(including discussion of the new Scratch since it links in):
Raven's excitement links heavily to his character now. As well it should.
As mentioned above, higher Excitement makes him better. At no ticks, he's mildly nerfed from what he was before. At 3-5 ticks(Level 2), he's about where he is now(minus the no jc on the 6P), + the natural excitement damage boosts(which is 9-15% at that level.) 3 hit ball and so on. (I'm not certain but scratch may be a frame faster than it is now here, but I'd need frame data.)
At 6-10 stacks, he's at a 18-30% damage boost, has a 4 hit ball, and a faster scratch. Basically, he's a death engine at this level.
(Always note his dash super has increased hits on excitement, too!)
Now there is a change to how excitement works; it's stronger, but less permanent, and must be managed. Excitement gains something like 2-3 ticks per hit, which is huge, in addition to going up aster just by going into neutral stance.
One thing Excitement changes is the speed of Scratch. This might sound minor(a frame per level, it's the same speed base, and goes up a frame per level that we can tell, again, waiting for official notes but that's what the stuff is saying), but this opens up combo routes that weren't there before. In the current game, Raven is able to score a 2D->Scratch on lightweight characters(and the Scratch knocks down; can't tech it.) On middle+ it can be teched. However in Rev2, the speed up enables him to use this on middleweights at level 2, and seemingly heavyweights at level 3(of which there are only 3 characters anyway, Pot, Kum, and Bedman.) So already at level 2 this opens up new combos-against a standing middleweight, for example, he gets for a punish cl.S->6P->cl.S->6P->f.S-2D on open ground. At level 2, he will be able to add the scratch after the 2D for more damage and another tick of excitement(and if he's at five ticks this will push him into six, which is level 3 and starts the really oppressive oki.) This is great that it opens up more of the cast to use it on.
You can see an example of the level 2 2D->Scratch hitting Ky here while he's at level 2:
You can also think of clever ways of how to use Tension to gain and maintain excitement. For example, usually Getreuer(Stab Super) drains excitement now after the kick hits(it doesn't dump it instantly but starts it ticking down, and it does tick down rather fast remember.) But if you RRC after the kick as shown here, you can continue your pressure:
So this will lead to some good decision making. Keeping Level 3 is pretty important I think(Level 2 can be gained rather easily, I notice people being a little more willing to let it reset, though if you're at 5 ticks it might be worth saving.)
You can also, for example, command grab(+3 ticks), RRC, command grab again(+3 ticks), combo, and there you are, 6 ticks, 4 hit ball and they're going into oki for the cost of 50 tension(and getting level 3 for 50 tension, IMO, isn't a bad deal, even with a badly prorated combo.)
I don't have any video of the scratch loops after a corner throw, though this is likely going to be difficult to pull off and probably used for styling or securing a kill. We'll have to see there. It sounds cool in any case. (These apparently do not work on Bedman, Kum, or Pot.)
They weren't joking when they said excitement gains quickly, as shown here:
And people forget how much more damage he does at high excitement. At level 3 it's 18-30% more. That's huge, and it turns Raven into a murder machine, ending rounds quickly if allowed to perform his savagery:
People are going to have to get used to him doing more damage. Generally, very few people use his Excitement now(it just takes too long to go up and gives too little benefit), that having to land another hit confirm or two is something people find easier than boosting excitement for the damage boost. (Excitement is why Raven is likely designed with sorta meh damage at base level; it's because he can get such an enormous boost. If he had done even slightly above average at base level he would have been making Potemkin look at him side-eye fully boosted.)
So what does all this mean? It puts a lot into the hands of the players-and both players, since opponents are now required to be situationally aware vs. Raven, and have decision making. Raven players will need to decide to maybe end combos in scratch instead of say dust(air combo), to maintain a tick or gain a tick. They need to decide if it's worth spending tension to stack it or maintain it. They need to keep a mental idea of how long they have before resetting, what to stance and so on. Of course all of this has to be done quickly in the flow of a match. Also Ravens not keeping an eye on their excitement may not realize they no longer have access to their better attacks and do things out of habit which can be dangerous.
On the flip side, opponents not paying attention will find themselves trying to reverse or DP through a 2 hit ball only to get blended by a 3 or 4 hit ball, they won't remember his extra damage routes, they may not remember that certain moves will no longer beat out scratch because it's faster, and so on. Also I've seen opponents actually Burst in an attempt to hold him off from resetting his level 3 in particular, this will be a real decision to make(save Burst for a combo or use it to prevent him from staying in steamroller mode?) This in turn could lead to Ravens trying to intimidate them into using it, more mindgames and so on.
I think stance and his attacks will be used in conjunction for ideal excitement maintenance. Maintaining it with offense only is going to be risky, but mixing in with smart stance use will allow it to kind of explode. Dash super gains more use now too, giving a fat five ticks; given you can combo into this fairly easily, it's not a bad use of 50 tension to gain five(especially if you're sitting at 1, as this pushes you into level 3!) I think his command grab is going to be particularly valuable, given the large amount it gives for no meter, but scratch is going to be a useful maintenance tool(especially given vs. most of the cast, once he hits 3 ticks, 2D-Scratch can be utilized. So 2K->2D->Scratch, or well anything that gatlings into 2D->Scratch, which is a lot.)
Whew, this section was long, but it is a big part of his game now.
The glide I cannot do too much judging on at the moment since I've only seen bits of it in action, I don't have any hard numbers on it, so I'd rather we actually get something here before really getting into it, since I can't really say if it even has a major effect on his game yet. Some videos show me business as usual, so if there IS a change, it may be minor.
Overall Thoughts:
On paper, making him more difficult is technically a nerf of sorts(6P was a nerf), but the fact they buffed his high end game is an improvement I feel. His power level basically runs a little differently. Good players will be able to play an even stronger Raven than they do now; even with the fact Excitement can decay(which had to happen, IMO, for them to make it better), he gains so many more benefits under it. More damage(which again, always there, just rarely utilized), more combo routes, more damaging combo routes, even better Oki than now(4 hit ball is going to make people weep far more than 3 hit, IMO), and simply a lot more creativity to his game.
For example: Right now it's extremely rare for someone to be at high Excitement when stab super hits(it IS fun when it happens.) Thus rarely there is an opportunity for someone to, say, Stab super for 52 hits, RRC and continue pressure(I guess someone could Stab super for the single kick and continue pressure but I imagine there is much better use of meter at this point.)
It makes things more dynamic for both sides too. The other side won't have to complain about KND-Ball-Mixup; since yes, this will be a part of his game, especially at 2+ levels of excitement, but there will be more decision making on the part of a Raven player(give up Oki to gain a tick? What level are you comfortable letting tick away to re-earn it? How far will you go to keep level 3?), as well as the opponent(are you willing to let him stay at level 2? Do you want to stop any gain, even if it puts yourself at risk since he's only mildly nerfed at 0 stacks remember. Use up a Burst to attempt to prevent Lv. 3?...Forget that he can stance the Burst and he is now maxed...? Oops...) His air scratch at level 3 is going to be a mere 10 frames. Need to remember that, too. Essentially both halves are going to remember a few abilities changes throughout the match and know when it happens.
I do think that some people who were in it for the easy oki might move to another character(though given they seemed to make oki harder for the likes of Millia, as well, and took away things like easy AA's, I think they want more people to work hard, not less...not sure where they'll go!), but Raven mains will find things very fun, dynamic, and with a visceral sort of reward(just seeing him rip a life bar apart quickly makes me can't wait to play this new version and the new tech.)
Also, he might see some new players who felt a bit bored playing him before! With his new playstyle, he might appeal to people who wanted something more to sink their teeth into.
Opponents may be a touch less salty, perhaps having a sort of grudging respect since letting him get to level 3 is partially on them getting outplayed, so the oki feels less 'free'(to be honest, I thought it was about getting outplayed before too, but people are funny like that.)
I'd be curious to hear some thoughts from other GG players who have seen his stuff! Anything to add? Anything you can come up with tech wise?
Til next time...
